SAIC MOTOR(600104) 平安证券·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's overseas market performance is strong, with overseas sales reaching 1.208 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, maintaining its position as the top domestic exporter for 8 consecutive years [3] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales structure is improving, with the proportion of NEV passenger car sales above 150,000 RMB reaching 43.6% in 2023, an increase of 19.2 percentage points compared to 2022 [4] - The company's joint venture brands, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC General Motors, experienced significant declines in profitability, with net profits decreasing by 64.1% and 54.4% respectively in 2023 [4] - The company's independent business segment showed stable losses, with a net loss of 4.26 billion RMB in 2023, similar to 2022 levels [4] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 726.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.11 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5% [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 10.2% in 2023, up from 9.6% in 2022, while the net margin decreased to 1.9% from 2.2% [3] - The company's ROE declined to 4.9% in 2023 from 5.8% in 2022 [3] - The company's EPS (diluted) for 2023 was 1.22 RMB, down from 1.39 RMB in 2022 [3] Business Segments - The company's self-owned brands, SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle and SAIC-GM-Wuling, sold 986,000 and 1.403 million units respectively in 2023, with year-on-year changes of +17.5% and -12.3% [3] - The company's joint venture brands, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC General Motors, sold 1.215 million and 1.001 million units respectively in 2023, with year-on-year declines of 8.0% and 14.5% [3] - The company's NEV sales reached 1.123 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with the IM Motors brand selling 38,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 665.1% [3] Future Outlook - The report forecasts the company's revenue to grow to 798.5 billion RMB in 2025 and 822.7 billion RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3% and 3.0% respectively [3] - The report predicts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to decline to 12.21 billion RMB in 2025 and 11.60 billion RMB in 2026, with year-on-year decreases of 6.1% and 5.0% respectively [3] - The report expects the company's gross margin to remain stable at around 10.5% from 2024 to 2026 [3] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to increase from 12.4x in 2024 to 15.0x in 2026 [3] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.6x from 2024 to 2026 [3]