CHUNLI MEDICAL(SH:688236) Huachuang Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of approximately 26 yuan based on a 30x valuation for 2024 [25][31][43]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1.209 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.58% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 278 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 9.72% [30]. - The report highlights that the company's joint product revenue grew steadily to 1.101 billion yuan (+5.18%), while other product revenue declined significantly by 29.94% to 107 million yuan [3]. - Domestic revenue fell by 7.40% to 1.009 billion yuan due to factors like centralized procurement, while overseas revenue surged by 81.73% to 198 million yuan, indicating successful international market expansion [3]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 72.48% (-3.55 percentage points), with domestic gross margin at 74.21% (-3.10 percentage points) and overseas gross margin at 63.80% (+0.74 percentage points) [3]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming joint procurement renewal in January 2024 could provide performance elasticity, particularly if the company successfully regains its knee joint procurement status [3][31]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.512 billion yuan, 1.911 billion yuan, and 2.404 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.1%, 26.4%, and 25.8% respectively [31]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is forecasted to be 334 million yuan, 402 million yuan, and 503 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.4%, 20.1%, and 25.1% [31]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.87 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.31 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 18, and 14 [31].