M&G(603899) 开源证券·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue reaching 23.35 billion yuan (+16.8% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.53 billion yuan (+19.1% YoY) [4] - Q4 2023 revenue was 7.49 billion yuan (+19.5% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan (+24.6% YoY) [4] - The company's traditional core business continues to expand through high-end and channel transformation, while the retail store business achieved record-high revenue and profit [4] - The company's second growth point is gradually emerging, with new business investments continuing [4] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts adjusted to 1.83/2.11/2.43 billion yuan, with EPS of 1.98/2.28/2.63 yuan [4] Revenue Breakdown - Traditional core business revenue in 2023 was 9.14 billion yuan (+7.6% YoY), with Morning Light Technology contributing 860 million yuan (+31.2% YoY) [5] - Morning Light Kolibri revenue in 2023 was 13.31 billion yuan (+21.8% YoY), with gross margin of 7.2% (-1.2pct) [5] - Retail store revenue in 2023 was 1.34 billion yuan (+51.0% YoY), with Ji Mu Za Wu She contributing 1.24 billion yuan (+52.6% YoY) and achieving its first profit of 26 million yuan [5] - Ji Mu Za Wu She had 618 stores by the end of 2023 (417 directly operated, 201 franchised), with 129 new stores opened during the year [5] Profitability - 2023 gross margin was 18.9% (-0.5pct), with Q4 gross margin at 15.6% (-0.9pct) [6] - 2023 operating expense ratio was 10.7% (-0.8pct), with sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios of 6.6%/3.5%/0.8%/-0.2% respectively [6] - 2023 net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 0.1pct to 6.5%, with Q4 net profit margin up 0.2pct to 5.8% [6] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts: 27.69/32.36/37.25 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 18.6%/16.9%/15.1% [7] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts: 1.83/2.11/2.43 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 20.1%/15.4%/15.0% [7] - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts: 1.98/2.28/2.63 yuan, with P/E ratios of 19.0/16.5/14.4x [7] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecasts: 18.7%/18.6%/18.6%, with net profit margin forecasts of 6.6%/6.5%/6.5% [7]