GRGTEST(002967) 国泰君安·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the company, with a target price of 18.90 CNY, down from the previous target of 19.60 CNY [10] - The current stock price is 15.39 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 9.98-22.84 CNY [2][10] - The company's market capitalization is 8,853 million CNY [2] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 2,889 million CNY (up 10.94% YoY) and net profit of 199 million CNY (up 8.39% YoY) [10] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2024-2026, with EPS forecasts of 0.54 CNY, 0.70 CNY, and 0.87 CNY respectively [10] - The company's valuation is based on a 35x P/E ratio for 2024, reflecting industry comparables [10] Business Performance - The company's multi-business segments showed steady growth in 2023, with metrology services revenue reaching 718 million CNY (up 18.79% YoY) and reliability and environmental testing revenue at 663 million CNY (up 8.17% YoY) [10] - Integrated circuit testing revenue grew significantly, reaching 202 million CNY (up 34.21% YoY), driven by leading market share in automotive semiconductor testing [10] - Food and environmental testing segments saw revenue declines, with 154 million CNY (down 14.46% YoY) and 161 million CNY (down 9.64% YoY) respectively, but are expected to recover with downstream demand [10] Financial Summary - The company's operating profit margin is expected to improve from 9.4% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024 and 11.1% in 2026 [10] - ROE is projected to increase from 5.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2024 and 11.7% in 2026 [10] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to decline from 12.20 in 2023 to 10.76 in 2024 and 7.79 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [10] Industry and Valuation Comparison - The company's 2024 P/E ratio of 28.66x is below the industry average of 36.03x, suggesting potential undervaluation [10][14] - Comparable companies in the industry, such as West Test (301306 SZ) and Pony Testing (300887 SZ), have higher P/E ratios of 28.01x and 17.62x respectively for 2024 [14] Growth and Profitability Trends - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 10.9% in 2023 to 23.0% in 2024, driven by multi-business segment expansion [10] - EBIT growth is forecasted to remain strong, increasing from 35.4% in 2023 to 33.4% in 2024 [10] - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve from 6.9% in 2023 to 8.7% in 2024, reflecting cost optimization and efficiency gains [10]