Company Analysis - The company's gross margin has declined in the short term due to the impact of Temu, but the control of period expenses remains at a reasonable level [2][3] - In 2023, the company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 678.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 27%, down 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Temu's warehousing and logistics systems are in the construction phase, with significant room for optimization in the future [13] Industry Analysis - The e-commerce industry has entered an era of stock competition, with "low price" becoming the core of competition [7] - The growth rate of China's online retail sales of physical goods has gradually slowed down, with the penetration rate of online retail sales reaching 27.61% by the end of 2023, up 0.40 percentage points from the end of 2022 [10] - The e-commerce industry's growth rate has diverged, with live-streaming e-commerce maintaining a growth rate significantly higher than the industry average, and its market share continues to increase [22] Temu's Development and Optimization - Temu has entered 51 countries and regions by March 2024, maintaining a high level of investment, and is expected to maintain high growth in traffic and GMV [32] - Temu's logistics system is in the construction phase, with significant room for optimization in the future, which can improve consumer shopping experience and reduce logistics costs [13] - Temu has partnered with major shipping companies to reduce logistics costs by 30-60% through sea freight, which can enhance profitability while maintaining low prices [14] - Temu plans to build overseas warehouses in the US to improve logistics efficiency and reduce costs, which will help solve the issue of warehouse overcapacity and improve delivery times [15] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 3574 billion yuan in 2024 to 5781 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to be 791/1106/1530 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, respectively [37][41] - Temu's GMV is expected to grow from 175 billion USD in 2023 to 808 billion USD in 2026, with revenue projected to increase from 72 billion USD in 2023 to 331 billion USD in 2026 [33][34] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline in the short term due to the rising proportion of Temu's revenue but is projected to recover as Temu's scale increases and logistics costs decrease [38] Competitive Landscape - Pinduoduo's market share is expected to reach 21.2% in 2023, surpassing JD.com's 20.4% and becoming the second-largest e-commerce platform in China [28] - The e-commerce industry is experiencing intensified competition, with "low price" becoming the focus of all platforms, and Pinduoduo's user base and traffic advantages have built a solid moat [28][72] - Pinduoduo's domestic main site is expected to maintain stable growth, with its user and merchant barriers being relatively solid, and the company's future growth drivers include the main site, Duoduo Maicai, and Temu [75][76]
深度报告：国内基本盘稳固，海外业务打造公司第二增长曲线