Vipshop(US:VIPS) Guoxin Securities·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - For Q1 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of 26.2 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 1%, with growth slowing compared to the previous quarter due to adverse weather conditions and a high base from last year [3][4] - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to be 9.3%, and the Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to be 7.7%, reflecting improvements in cost and expense management [3][4] - The long-term outlook for apparel consumption remains stable, with revenue forecasts adjusted to 118 billion, 125.2 billion, and 132.9 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with slight downward adjustments of -0.8% for each year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for Q1 2024 is 27.8 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 6.5 billion yuan, indicating a gross margin of 23.3% [5] - The Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2024 is estimated at 2.2 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 7% [5] - The company’s future three-year adjusted net profit is revised to 9.5 billion, 10.5 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan, with slight upward adjustments of +0.3%, +0.1%, and +0.8% respectively [7] Market Position and Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7 for 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 6% for profits from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The target price is maintained at 22-24 USD, indicating an upside potential of 33%-48% [7]