SAIC MOTOR(600104) 长江证券·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company's 2023 total revenue reached 744.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the sales volume was 5.021 million vehicles, a decrease of 5.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.11 billion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year. The revenue showed stability with a high cash dividend, but concentrated impairment provisions negatively impacted profitability [2][5][6] - During the transition to new energy, profits from joint ventures are under pressure, but overseas expansion has significantly reduced losses for the company's own brands [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 744.71 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.11 billion yuan. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 221.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.5%. However, the net profit for Q4 was 2.7 billion yuan, down 22.2% year-on-year and 37.6% quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The company reported a total of 35.05 billion yuan in credit impairment losses and 44.47 billion yuan in asset impairment losses for the year, with significant provisions for inventory and unsold models [5][6] Joint Ventures and Self-owned Brands - In 2023, sales for SAIC Volkswagen were 1.215 million vehicles, down 8.0%, while SAIC General Motors saw sales of 1.001 million vehicles, down 14.5%. The net profits for these joint ventures were significantly impacted, with declines of 64.4% and 54.4% respectively [6] - The self-owned passenger vehicle segment saw sales of 986,000 units, an increase of 17.5%. The net loss for the passenger vehicle company narrowed to 2.85 billion yuan, with improvements in gross margin and operational efficiency noted [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in joint venture profits as sales stabilize, and the self-owned brand is entering a new development cycle that could enhance sales performance. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.10 billion, 15.62 billion, and 16.73 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.5X, 11.2X, and 10.4X [6][11]