2023年年报点评：2023年四季度盈利承压，多种正极产品量产稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][19] Core Views - The company faced profit pressure in Q4 2023, with various cathode products steadily ramping up production. The net profit for 2023 was CNY 1.924 billion, down 15% year-on-year, and revenue was CNY 15.127 billion, down 29% year-on-year. The gross margin was 18.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][5][19] - The company’s cathode material shipment volume remained flat year-on-year in 2023, with a total shipment of 62,700 tons, down 1% year-on-year. Q4 shipments saw a significant decline, estimated at 14,000 tons, down over 20% quarter-on-quarter due to weakened overseas demand and inventory control by battery manufacturers [1][11][19] - The company is expected to see steady growth in cathode sales in 2024, driven by new customer development and increased shipments of lithium iron phosphate [1][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of CNY 15.127 billion, a decrease of 29% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 1.924 billion, down 15% year-on-year. The gross margin was 18.06%, up 0.66 percentage points year-on-year [5][17] - Q4 2023 revenue was CNY 2.584 billion, down 64% year-on-year and 38% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of CNY 433 million, down 45% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter [5][11] Market Dynamics - The company faced significant competition from overseas battery customers, leading to a slowdown in shipment growth. The increasing share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the domestic market also contributed to the stagnation in cathode shipment volume [1][11][15] - The company’s cathode product types are diversifying, with steady progress in customer development. High-nickel and ultra-high-nickel products are widely used in large cylindrical batteries, while solid-state battery cathodes have seen increased shipments [1][14][19] Profitability Outlook - The company’s cathode material net profit per ton was over CNY 31,000 in 2023, maintaining industry-leading profitability. However, profitability is expected to decline in 2024 due to increased domestic customer ratios and depreciation pressures from new capacity [1][13][19] - The forecast for 2024-2026 includes a projected net profit of CNY 1.016 billion, CNY 1.195 billion, and CNY 1.446 billion, with year-on-year changes of -47%, +18%, and +21% respectively [19]