Semir(SZ:002563) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [14][15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.661 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.122 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 76.1% year-on-year [15][32]. - The company is expected to recover scale growth in 2024, supported by improvements in profitability and the implementation of a new retail strategy [15][25]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2025 and added a forecast for 2026, with expected net profits of 1.29 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively [15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross profit margin of 44.0%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin reaching 8.21%, up by 3.4 percentage points [16][41]. - The company’s operating income is projected to grow to 15.202 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.48 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8 times [15][3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from children's clothing in 2023 was 9.373 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.92%, while leisure clothing revenue was 4.171 billion yuan, down 2.58% year-on-year [33][32]. - Online sales in 2023 amounted to 6.228 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.51% year-on-year, while offline sales showed recovery with direct sales increasing by 19.19% and franchise sales by 9.68% [23][32]. Store Network - As of the end of 2023, the total number of stores was 7,937, a net decrease of 203 stores from the beginning of the year, with direct and franchise stores decreasing by 42 and 172 respectively [10][56]. - The company is expected to achieve net store openings in 2024 as it continues to adjust its offline store strategy [10][15]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory management, with inventory levels decreasing by 28.6% year-on-year, and inventory turnover days reduced to 155 days [16][58]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 was 1.941 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.1%, indicating a recovery in cash flow health [16][58].