产销增长稳定，锂钾业务有望触底反弹

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 27 CNY over the next six months [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2023, with total revenue of 21.58 billion CNY, down 29.80% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.91 billion CNY, down 49.17% year-on-year [2][3]. - The potassium and lithium salt businesses are the main profit contributors, although both experienced a decline in revenue and gross profit margins [3][4]. - The company is expanding its lithium production capacity, with a new integrated lithium salt project expected to be completed by the end of 2024, which will increase annual lithium carbonate production capacity [5][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the potassium fertilizer and lithium salt business generated total revenues of 146.18 billion CNY and 63.61 billion CNY, respectively, accounting for 67.74% and 29.48% of total revenue [3]. - The gross profit for potassium fertilizer and lithium salt was 75.02 billion CNY and 46.08 billion CNY, with gross margins declining to 51.32% and 72.45%, respectively [3][4]. - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit in Q4 2023, with a net profit of 2.31 billion CNY, up 360.67% quarter-on-quarter, despite a year-on-year decline of 33.56% [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 19.12 billion CNY, 22.27 billion CNY, and 25.97 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 7.52 billion CNY, 8.57 billion CNY, and 11.03 billion CNY [8][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and improve its operational efficiency, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 18.5% in 2024 [9][10].