SCIE(SH:600546) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-04-02 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanmei International (600546.SH) with a market price of 15.45 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance is being suppressed by declining coal prices amid weak production and sales. However, the commitment to increase dividends enhances its investment value [1][6]. - The company is expected to have a cash dividend ratio of at least 60% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a potential increase in the cash dividend ratio for 2024 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022 Revenue: 46,391 million CNY - 2023 Revenue: 37,371 million CNY (down 19% YoY) - 2024 Revenue: 42,864 million CNY (up 15% YoY) - 2023 Net Profit: 4,260 million CNY (down 39% YoY) - 2024 Net Profit: 5,306 million CNY (up 25% YoY) [2][6]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023 EPS: 2.15 CNY - 2024 EPS: 2.68 CNY - 2025 EPS: 2.86 CNY - 2026 EPS: 3.02 CNY [2][9]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023 ROE: 21% - 2024 ROE: 20% - 2025 ROE: 18% - 2026 ROE: 16% [2][9]. Coal Business Performance - In 2023, the coal business generated revenue of 367.09 billion CNY, a decrease of 20% YoY, with a gross profit of 145.66 billion CNY, down 29.86% YoY [7]. - The average coal price in 2023 was 699 CNY/ton, a decrease of 17.91% YoY [7]. - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of 59.85 billion CNY in 2023, down 58.07% YoY [6]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend of 12.89 billion CNY for 2023, with a dividend per share of 0.65 CNY, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 30.25% [7]. - The projected dividend policy for 2024-2026 is expected to maintain a minimum cash dividend ratio of 60% [7].