KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2024-04-02 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by over 15% in the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved record performance in 2023, with total revenue reaching 150.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74.73 billion yuan, up 19.16% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, supported by strong sales during the recent Spring Festival [2][3]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor was 126.59 billion yuan, reflecting a steady growth of 17.39%, while the revenue from series liquor reached 20.63 billion yuan, a significant increase of 29.43% [2][3]. - The company has been focusing on expanding its direct sales channels, with direct sales revenue reaching 22.37 billion yuan, a growth of 88.29% [2][3]. - The production capacity of Moutai liquor increased by 0.7% to 57,200 tons, while series liquor production capacity rose by 22.2% to 42,900 tons [2][3]. - The report forecasts earnings per share of 69.70 yuan and 81.37 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25 times and 21 times [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 150.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 74.73 billion yuan, both exceeding previous forecasts [2][3]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 45.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.80%, and a net profit of 21.86 billion yuan, up 19.33% [2][3]. Product Development - The company continues to develop Moutai liquor while also promoting the rapid growth of series liquor [2][3]. - The successful launch of the large single product Moutai 1935 has contributed significantly to the revenue of series liquor [2][3]. Channel Strategy - The company has significantly increased its focus on direct sales channels, which have shown strong growth [2][3]. - The revenue from distribution channels was 79.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.52% [2][3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is steadily releasing production capacity, with new facilities expected to enhance series liquor production [2][3].