2023年年报点评：23年靓丽收官，24年势能延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price corresponding to a PE of 25/21/18 times for the years 2024-2026 respectively [1][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 150.56 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74.73 billion yuan, up 19.16% year-on-year. The revenue for Q4 2023 was 45.24 billion yuan, with a growth of 19.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company continues to upgrade its product structure, with liquor revenue increasing by 18.94% in 2023. The revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 126.59 billion yuan and 20.63 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 17.39% and 29.43% [1]. - Direct sales accounted for 46% of total sales, with "i Moutai" revenue surpassing 20 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 88.29% [1]. - The company has a stable profit level, with a cash dividend ratio of 84% in 2023, and operating cash flow increased by 81.46% to 66.59 billion yuan [1]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of around 15% in 2024, with fixed asset investments of 6.179 billion yuan, supported by the gradual expansion of Moutai production capacity [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 150.56 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 74.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.16% [1][9]. - Q4 2023 revenue was 45.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8% [1]. Product Structure - The company’s liquor revenue increased by 18.94% in 2023, with Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues at 126.59 billion yuan and 20.63 billion yuan respectively [1]. - Moutai liquor sales volume reached 42,100 tons, up 11.10% year-on-year, while series liquor sales volume was 31,200 tons, up 2.94% [1]. Sales Channels - Direct sales accounted for 46% of total sales, with "i Moutai" revenue reaching 22.37 billion yuan, an increase of 88.29% [1]. - Wholesale and direct sales revenues were 79.99 billion yuan and 67.23 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.52% and 36.16% [1]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s gross margin was 91.96%, with a net profit margin of 50.60% [1]. - Operating cash flow increased by 81.46% to 66.59 billion yuan, with a cash dividend of 38.8 billion yuan [1]. Future Outlook - The company targets a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024 and plans to invest 6.179 billion yuan in fixed assets [1].