23年圆满收官，24年增势不减

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the adjusted earnings forecast for 2024-2026 [17][38] Core Views - The company exceeded its full-year targets in 2023, with Q4 revenue accelerating significantly [3][21] - The company's profitability improved due to stable gross margins and reduced expense ratios [4] - The company aims for a 15% revenue growth in 2024, driven by product structure optimization and increased direct sales [5] - The company's financial indicators performed well, with a significant increase in operating cash flow in 2023 [32] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's total revenue was 1505.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 747.34 billion yuan, up 19.16% year-on-year [13] - The gross profit margin in 2023 was 91.96%, a slight increase of 0.10 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross profit margin reaching 92.56%, up 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company's ROE in 2023 was 34.65%, with a net profit margin attributable to the parent company of 49.64%, up 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [4][16] Product and Channel Performance - In 2023, Moutai liquor revenue was 1265.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.39%, while series liquor revenue was 206.30 billion yuan, up 29.43% year-on-year [3] - The growth in Moutai liquor was driven by a 11.1% increase in sales volume and a 5.7% increase in average price per ton due to product structure optimization and price adjustments [3] - The growth in series liquor was driven by the strong performance of Moutai 1935, which became a 10-billion-yuan product within two years of its launch [3] - Direct sales revenue in 2023 was 672.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.16%, accounting for 45.67% of total revenue, up 5.77 percentage points year-on-year [31][35] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth of 15.87%, 15.37%, and 14.15% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company growing by 17.93%, 17.48%, and 15.79% during the same period [17][38] - The company plans to continue optimizing its product structure, launching new products, and increasing the proportion of direct sales to drive revenue growth [5]