2023年年报点评：业绩略超预告，24年定调积极

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [7][21] Core Views - The company has set a positive tone for 2024, targeting a 15% revenue growth, reflecting confidence in its development and alleviating market concerns about downward revisions in sector performance forecasts [1] - The company's growth toolkit is robust, with price increases for Feitian Moutai at the end of last year directly boosting revenue and net profit, along with contributions from non-standard products, increased direct sales, and series liquor layout [1] - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of CNY 150.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of CNY 74.734 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.16% [20] - The company announced a cash dividend of CNY 38.786 billion (tax included) for 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 51.9% [20] Financial Performance - In 2023, Moutai liquor sales grew by double digits, with iMoutai revenue showing strong growth [10] - Total revenue in 2023 increased by 18%, exceeding the target of 15% growth and slightly surpassing the previously announced operating forecast (+17.2%) [10] - Moutai liquor revenue in 2023 was CNY 125.689 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with sales volume and ton price increasing by 11.1% and 5.7% respectively [10] - Series liquor revenue in 2023 was CNY 20.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with sales volume and ton price increasing by 2.94% and 25.74% respectively [10] - Direct sales revenue in 2023 was CNY 67.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%, with iMoutai's tax-exclusive revenue reaching CNY 22.374 billion, a year-on-year increase of 88.29% [10] - Direct sales accounted for 46% of total revenue in 2023, up from 40% in 2022 [10] Profitability and Valuation - The company's comprehensive gross margin in 2023 was 92.12%, basically flat year-on-year (+0.03pct), with a net profit margin of 51.49%, up 0.24pct year-on-year [23] - The company's ROE (attributable to the parent company) was 34.65% in 2023, up from 31.75% in 2022 [24] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 24/21/19 times for 2024/2025/2026, with EPS of CNY 70.49/80.76/91.84 [21] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is CNY 2,153.114 billion, with a total share capital of 1.256 billion shares [3] - The stock's lowest and highest prices in the past year were CNY 1,555.55 and CNY 1,912.92 respectively [3] - The stock's turnover rate in the past three months was 13.86% [3]