Jiangsu Expressway(600377) 华创证券·2024-04-04 16:00Investment Rating - Target price: 13.4 RMB, current price: 11.22 RMB, implying a 20% upside potential [1] - Maintain "Recommend" rating, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% in the next 6 months [3][11] Core Views - The company's toll road business is steadily recovering, with traffic and revenue surpassing 2019 levels [3] - Key assets like Hu-Ning Expressway and Ning-Chang Expressway have shown strong performance, with significant increases in passenger traffic and daily revenue [3] - The company's high-quality assets in the Yangtze River Delta region are undervalued and should be given more attention [3] - The company has a stable dividend policy, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 53.65% in 2023 [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 15.192 billion RMB, up 14.61% YoY; net profit: 4.413 billion RMB, up 18.51% YoY [3] - Gross margin: 36.9%, up 3.6 percentage points YoY; net margin: 29.05%, up 1 percentage point YoY [3] - Toll road business revenue: 9.511 billion RMB, up 29.88% YoY, with a gross margin of 54.52% [3] - Hu-Ning Expressway revenue: 5.25 billion RMB, exceeding the 2019 level of 5.231 billion RMB [3] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue growth projected at 4.8%, 7.0%, and 5.6% respectively [3] - 2024-2026 net profit growth projected at 8.2%, 11.1%, and 7.6% respectively [3] - 2024-2026 EPS projected at 0.95, 1.05, and 1.13 RMB respectively [3] - 2024-2026 PE ratios projected at 12, 11, and 10 times respectively [3] Dividend Policy - 2023 dividend: 0.47 RMB per share, total cash dividend of 2.368 billion RMB [3] - Expected to maintain a dividend of 0.47 RMB per share in 2024-2025, with a dividend yield of 4.2% at the current price [3] Key Financial Ratios - 2023 ROE: 13.0%, expected to remain stable at around 12.3%-12.9% in 2024-2026 [5] - 2023 debt-to-equity ratio: 78.9%, expected to decrease to 62.8% by 2026 [5] - 2023 current ratio: 0.9, expected to decrease to 0.5 by 2026 [5]