Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 244.2 CNY per share, based on a 22x PE for 2024 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company has successfully restructured its product matrix, demonstrating high elasticity and potential for digital transformation. The management team has implemented comprehensive reforms since 2015, leading to stable performance and improved profitability amidst a weak economic recovery [1][9]. - The expansion of high-net-worth individuals in China is a strong driver for the premium liquor market, with the high-end liquor market expected to reach 284.6 billion CNY by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 15.38% from 2021 to 2026 [1][9]. - The dual-brand strategy of high and low alcohol content products has created a resilient product matrix, allowing the company to adapt to economic fluctuations while maintaining growth [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review and Reform - The company, known as the pioneer of strong aroma liquor, has undergone significant reforms since 2015, focusing on brand consolidation and channel optimization to regain its position among the top three in the industry [9][11]. - The company experienced a setback from 1989 to 1999 due to a misstep in strategy, losing its competitive edge in the high-end market [13][14]. 2. Product Strength - The company has established a clear brand matrix covering all price segments, with flagship products like Guojiao 1573 positioned as a high-end offering alongside the revitalization of the Tequ series [20][21]. - The product strategy includes a focus on high-end, mid-range, and mass-market segments, ensuring a comprehensive market presence [20][21]. 3. Channel Strategy - The company transitioned from the "Qiqian Model" to a brand-specific operational model, enhancing control over distribution and aligning with long-term strategic goals [22][23]. - The establishment of specialized brand companies has improved market responsiveness and resource allocation [22][23]. 4. Shareholding Structure - The company benefits from a stable shareholding structure backed by local state-owned enterprises, which enhances its operational stability [24][26]. - Recent stock incentive plans have boosted employee motivation and performance, contributing to significant profit growth [26][27]. 5. Management Team - The management team is characterized by stability and youth, with leaders possessing extensive industry experience driving innovative reforms [28][29]. - The focus on nurturing young talent has strengthened the company's operational capabilities and market strategies [29][30]. 6. Performance Indicators - The company has shown resilience during economic downturns, with a CAGR of 20.27% in revenue and 32.15% in net profit from 2015 to 2022 [31]. - In Q3 2023, the company reported a revenue of 7.35 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.41% [31].
产品矩阵具备高弹性,数字化势能亟待释放