2023年报点评：韧性强劲，量价齐升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][19] Core Views - The company has shown strong operational resilience with stable terminal market prices and a focus on enhancing its product matrix and channel ecosystem in 2024 [2][15] - The latest prices for Feitian Moutai are 2,630 CNY per bottle for bulk and 2,905 CNY per box, reflecting a slight decrease from the beginning of the year, indicating price stability [2] - Projected net profits for the company are expected to be 875.93 billion CNY, 1,017.82 billion CNY, and 1,180.51 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 17.21%, 16.20%, and 15.98% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 150.56 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74.73 billion CNY, up 19.16% year-on-year [15][16] - The company’s gross margin and net margin showed slight improvements, with gross margin at 92.12% and net margin at 51.49% for the year [15][18] - The average selling price of Moutai liquor was 300.62 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.66% [15] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue from direct sales and wholesale channels reached 672.33 billion CNY and 799.86 billion CNY respectively, with direct sales accounting for 45.67% of total revenue [15] - The company’s operating income is projected to grow from 173.98 billion CNY in 2024 to 230.92 billion CNY by 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 87.59 billion CNY to 118.05 billion CNY [16][18] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its marketing model and maintaining stable pricing, which is crucial for sustaining its market position [7][15] - The report highlights the importance of the i Moutai platform, which significantly contributed to the growth in direct sales revenue, achieving 223.74 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 88.29% [15]