业绩稳定增长，PD-1海外商业化可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth with a total revenue of 1.503 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.283 billion yuan, a reduction in losses by 1.05 billion yuan compared to the previous year. The core product, Toripalimab, achieved sales revenue of approximately 919 million yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of about 25% [2][4]. - The company has made significant progress in internationalization, with Toripalimab receiving FDA approval for the treatment of advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the U.S. in October 2023. The sales peak for this indication is expected to reach 200 million USD within 2.5 to 3 years. The company is also expanding its global commercialization network with applications for market approval in the EU, UK, and Australia [2]. - The company continues to focus on innovation and has accelerated the development of its core pipeline. R&D expenses for 2023 were 1.937 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.7% year-on-year. Key developments include the initiation of international multi-center Phase III clinical trials for the BTLA monoclonal antibody and the advancement of other promising pipelines [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are projected at 2.027 billion yuan, 3.033 billion yuan, and 4.108 billion yuan, respectively. The DCF valuation method estimates a fair value of 52.09 yuan per share for A-shares and 19.37 HKD per share for H-shares [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 1.503 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 3.4%. The projected revenue growth rates for the next three years are 34.9% for 2024, 49.6% for 2025, and 35.5% for 2026 [3]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was -2.113 billion yuan, with expectations of improvement in the coming years. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to improve from -2.283 billion yuan in 2023 to -113 million yuan by 2026 [3][9]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was -2.005 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations of turning positive by 2026 [8].