Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading O2O automotive service provider with significant competitive advantages in scale, supply chain, and operational capabilities, and has ample room for store expansion and profit optimization [4]. - The automotive service market in China is expected to exceed one trillion yuan, driven by the growth of the existing vehicle fleet and the increasing average age of vehicles [4][20]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.78 billion, 18.17 billion, and 20.44 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 15%, and 12% [4][12]. - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 874 million, 1.475 billion, and 2.186 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 82%, 69%, and 48% [4][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to have a revenue growth of 16% in 2024, 15% in 2025, and 12% in 2026, with adjusted net profits growing significantly during the same period [12][14]. - The target market capitalization for 2024 is set at 18.9 billion HKD, based on a PE ratio of 20x, which is above the industry average [4][17]. 2. Automotive Service Market - The automotive service market in China is projected to grow significantly, benefiting from the increase in the existing vehicle fleet and the aging of vehicles [20][21]. - The market is characterized by a low frequency of service needs, with the DIFM model dominating, which emphasizes offline fulfillment and trust relationships [4][20]. 3. Company Overview - The company has established a vast network of offline stores and collaborates directly with automotive parts suppliers, enhancing its supply chain efficiency [4][20]. - The company’s core competencies include direct procurement and strong control over store operations, supported by a comprehensive technology service system [4][20]. 4. Growth Potential - The company has significant growth potential with an estimated store expansion of 1,500 new stores annually, aiming to exceed 10,000 stores by 2026 [12][14]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve due to an optimized business structure and increased bargaining power with suppliers [14][15]. 5. Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 15.78 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 4.185 billion yuan, leading to a gross margin of 26.5% [15]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated in the coming years [15][17].
途虎-W首次覆盖报告：O2O汽车服务龙头，成长飞轮加速