Prudent guidance but QoQ recovery is likely

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) with a target price of US$ 23.68, reflecting a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of US$ 18.98 [4][12]. Core Insights - The 4Q23 results slightly exceeded expectations, but the FY24E guidance was somewhat disappointing. However, there is optimism for sequential improvement due to a high base in the first half of the year, a strong occupancy rate compared to peers, and an improving PMI starting March 2024 [2][7]. - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) showed a year-to-date decline but improved quarter-over-quarter, with management targeting a flat recovery rate for FY24E [2][7]. - The company plans to open 360 new hotels in FY24E, aligning with previous expectations, and has a robust pipeline of 617 managed hotels under development [2][7]. Financial Summary - FY23 revenue reached RMB 4.7 billion, a 106.2% year-over-year increase, while net profit attributable rose by 651% to RMB 739 million [7][11]. - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 5.96 billion, with a 27.8% year-over-year growth, and net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.16 billion, reflecting a 57.7% increase [3][9]. - The report indicates a slight improvement in adjusted net profit margin for FY24E, with a target of 19.5% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation stands at a P/E of 16x for FY24E, which is considered not demanding given the projected 3-year sales and net profit CAGR of 26% and 41%, respectively [2][4]. - The target price is based on a 20x FY24E P/E, rolled over from a previous 30x FY23E P/E, compared to peers' median of 18x [2][4]. Growth Initiatives - The company is focusing on increasing corporate customer enrollments, enhancing product offerings, and targeting robust retail sales growth, particularly through Tmall and Douyin channels [2][7]. - Management anticipates a small improvement in net profit margin due to better operational expense control and a stronger-than-expected retail sales performance [2][7].