受益于全国碳市场扩围，低碳铝产品优势进一步凸显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. is "Buy" [1][3][14] Core Views - The company benefits from the expansion of the national carbon market, which enhances the advantages of low-carbon aluminum products [1] - In 2023, the company's revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year to 42.67 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13.4% to 3.96 billion yuan [1][4] - The company has a significant green electricity advantage, with approximately 80% of its production electricity sourced from green energy, resulting in carbon emissions about 20% of that from coal-powered aluminum [1][13] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company produced 2.4 million tons of primary aluminum, a decrease of 200,000 tons compared to 2022, due to power restrictions [1][4] - The company announced a profit distribution plan, distributing a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 798 million yuan [1][4] - Financial expenses have significantly decreased, with interest-bearing debt reduced to 4.5 billion yuan, down 2 billion yuan from the end of 2022, and the asset-liability ratio decreased to 25.6% [1][12] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 45.947 billion yuan, 49.320 billion yuan, and 51.914 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 7.3%, and 5.3% respectively [1][14] - The projected net profit for the same period is 4.105 billion yuan, 4.393 billion yuan, and 4.613 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.8%, 7.0%, and 5.0% respectively [1][14] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.18 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.33 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][14] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading domestic green hydropower aluminum enterprise, benefiting from low and stable electricity costs [1][14] - The company's low-carbon product advantages are expected to become more pronounced with the expansion of the carbon trading market [1][13]