HUAXIN CEMENT(SH:600801) EBSCN·2024-04-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) [2] Core Views - In 2023, Huaxin Cement achieved revenue of 33.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.8 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.1 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 40%, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 4% [6] - The cement business saw a sales volume increase of 6% year-on-year, although revenue decreased by 3% due to falling prices [7] - The concrete business experienced significant growth, with revenue rising by 49% year-on-year, and the aggregate business revenue increased by 75% year-on-year [8] - The company aims for nearly double-digit revenue growth in 2024, targeting total revenue of 37.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 9.6 billion yuan, a net profit of 890 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 500 million yuan, with respective year-on-year increases of 11%, 87%, and 11% [6] - The cement business generated revenue of 18.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 26.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points despite a decrease in average selling price [7] - The concrete business achieved revenue of 7.65 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.5% [8] Business Segments - The cement segment's average selling price was 315 yuan per ton, down 8% year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased by 9% to 231 yuan [7] - The concrete segment's sales volume reached 27.27 million cubic meters, a 66% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 281 yuan per cubic meter [8] - The aggregate segment's sales volume doubled to 13.1 million tons, with revenue of 5.36 billion yuan [8] Future Outlook - For 2024, the company plans to sell approximately 63 million tons of cement and clinker, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and aims for a total revenue of 37.1 billion yuan [9] - Capital expenditures are projected at 6.9 billion yuan, focusing on expanding aggregate, concrete, and overseas cement production capacity [9] - The company anticipates maintaining an asset-liability ratio of around 51% in 2024 [9] Valuation and Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.8 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 33% and 38% [10] - The report highlights the potential for a bottom reversal in cement stock profitability, maintaining a positive outlook for the sector [10]