XfmGroup(603225) 国泰君安·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.30 CNY, up from the previous target of 16.50 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with the filament industry showing an upward trend and increasing concentration. The demand from downstream sectors is expected to rise, supported by high oil prices, which may lead to an expansion in filament price differentials [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 140.75%. The adjusted net profit was 9.01 billion CNY, up 337.41% year-on-year [1][2]. - The long filament industry is experiencing a favorable market structure, with limited new capacity and an acceleration in the exit of small and medium enterprises, which is expected to further enhance industry concentration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 61.47 billion CNY in 2023, a 21% increase from the previous year. The operating profit was 3.22 billion CNY, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.09 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [1][2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.22 CNY, with projections of 1.47 CNY for 2024 and 1.81 CNY for 2025 [1][2]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the long filament industry is in a recovery phase, with a favorable supply-demand balance and high industry prosperity expected to continue. The company plans to increase its production capacity for differentiated polyester fiber materials and polyester film materials, which is anticipated to align with industry growth rates [1][2]. - Downstream demand is expected to improve, with price differentials likely to expand, enhancing the company's profitability. The average prices for various filament products are projected to increase in 2024 [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of the company's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.90 for 2023, projected to decrease to 12.13 in 2024 and 10.10 in 2025 [4][2]. - The company's market capitalization is reported at 22.68 billion CNY, with a 52-week price range of 9.95 to 15.02 CNY [2][4].