GCL TECH(HK:03800) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800.HK) [4] Core Views - GCL-Poly is facing challenges in the photovoltaic cycle, but disruptive innovation technologies such as granular silicon, CCZ, and perovskite are key to navigating through the cycle. Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are fundamental principles in the photovoltaic industry [15][16] - The company has made significant advancements in its core technologies, which are expected to yield long-term benefits and create a unique photovoltaic production system, alleviating supply-demand imbalances in the industry [15][16] Summary by Sections Company Overview - GCL-Poly is a leading supplier of silicon-based materials, primarily focusing on the production and sales of polysilicon. The company has successfully transitioned to producing granular silicon, achieving stable mass production and significant cost reductions [17][18] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a shift in supply-demand dynamics, with polysilicon prices having dropped significantly due to rapid capacity expansion. Despite high demand for photovoltaic installations, the oversupply has led to a price decline [12][15] Granular Silicon - Granular silicon has demonstrated significant advantages in both quality and cost. The average production cost has reached RMB 35.9 per kg, with further reduction potential. The product quality has improved, with 90% of products meeting stringent impurity standards [15][19] - The carbon footprint of granular silicon is substantially lower, with a potential reduction in carbon emissions by 74.3%, positioning the company favorably in light of future carbon tariffs [15][19] CCZ Technology - The CCZ continuous pulling technology is seen as a critical growth avenue for the company, with a current trial capacity of 200MW and a single furnace output of 185kg/d. This technology is expected to enhance the market share of granular silicon [15][19] Perovskite Technology - GCL-Poly has established the world's largest perovskite production line, achieving a conversion efficiency of 19.04%. The company is planning a GW-level production line, marking a significant advancement in perovskite technology [15][19] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 310 billion, RMB 381 billion, and RMB 473 billion, with corresponding net profits of RMB 24.45 billion, RMB 53.94 billion, and RMB 88.43 billion. The company is expected to achieve substantial growth driven by its granular silicon business and cost reduction potential [15][19]