GED(SZ:000539) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.37 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 7.36 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure primarily due to asset impairment, but there is an expectation for performance elasticity to be released in the future [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 59.7 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and a net profit of 9.7 billion CNY, indicating a turnaround from losses [1][2]. - The report highlights that the growth potential of the company's thermal power business is expected to resonate with its performance elasticity, especially in the context of declining coal prices [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 14.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the net profit was 5.3 billion CNY, showing a reduction in losses [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.02 CNY per share, which represents 10.8% of the net profit [1]. - The company’s total installed capacity at the end of 2023 was 14.7 GW, with a significant portion in thermal power [1][2]. Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 0.35 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively, with a valuation based on comparable company PE at 13x for 2025 [1][2]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2024 and 2025 are 5% and 22% respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [1][2]. Market Position - The company remains one of the largest power companies in Guangdong, focusing on investment, construction, and management of power projects [2]. - The report notes that the company's coal-fired power business still accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, despite the challenges posed by fluctuating coal prices [1][2].