Hualan Vac(301207) 光大证券·2024-04-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hualan Vaccine (301207 SZ) [3][13] Core Views - Hualan Vaccine achieved significant revenue and profit growth in 2023, with operating income reaching 2 41 billion yuan (+32 03% YoY) and net profit attributable to parent company reaching 860 million yuan (+65 49% YoY) [1] - The company's operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 888 million yuan (+207 63% YoY), mainly due to increased sales collection [2] - Influenza vaccine sales reached 2 403 billion yuan (+32 19% YoY), with sales volume of 19 3975 million doses (+33 38% YoY), driven by increased public vaccination willingness [2] - The company is actively developing new vaccine products, including mRNA vaccines, to diversify its revenue structure and achieve long-term stable growth [13] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2023 quarterly revenue: Q1 145 million yuan (+892 96% YoY), Q2 5 million yuan (-99 54% YoY), Q3 1 569 billion yuan (+214 16% YoY), Q4 692 million yuan (+160 44% YoY) [2] - 2023 quarterly net profit: Q1 94 million yuan (turned profitable), Q2 14 million yuan (-95 23% YoY), Q3 521 million yuan (+152 51% YoY), Q4 230 million yuan (+1442 56% YoY) [2] - 2024-2026 profit forecast: Net profit of 1 085 billion yuan (+26 18% YoY), 1 322 billion yuan (+21 86% YoY), and 1 561 billion yuan (+18 06% YoY) respectively [13] Valuation Metrics - Current PE ratio: 17x (2023), expected to decrease to 13x (2024), 11x (2025), and 9x (2026) [14] - PB ratio: 2 3x (2023), expected to decrease to 2 1x (2024), 1 8x (2025), and 1 6x (2026) [14] - ROE: 13 73% (2023), expected to increase to 15 53% (2024), 16 83% (2025), and 17 61% (2026) [14] Product Development - R&D investment in 2023: 93 million yuan, accounting for 3 87% of revenue [13] - New products: Freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) and tetanus vaccine obtained drug registration certificates in February 2023 [13] - Ongoing development: Multiple mRNA vaccines, including influenza virus mRNA vaccine [13] Market Data - Total shares: 600 million [4] - Market capitalization: 14 49 billion yuan [4] - 52-week price range: 19 16-36 50 yuan [4] - 3-month turnover rate: 25 34% [4]