KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) EBSCN·2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [19][20]. Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in Moutai's batch prices reflect the dynamics of supply and demand, with expectations for demand recovery and economic stimulus policies potentially catalyzing valuation increases [2][18]. - Moutai's batch price movements are seen as indicators of supply rhythm changes, with historical data showing a consistent pattern of price increases leading up to major holidays [18]. - The report forecasts steady revenue and profit growth for Moutai, with projected net profits of 88.54 billion, 101.46 billion, and 115.37 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, translating to EPS of 70.49, 80.76, and 91.84 yuan [19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections (in million yuan): - 2022: 127,554 - 2023: 150,560 - 2024E: 177,597 - 2025E: 203,541 - 2026E: 231,363 [3] - Net profit projections (in million yuan): - 2022: 62,716 - 2023: 74,734 - 2024E: 88,543 - 2025E: 101,456 - 2026E: 115,368 [3] - The report indicates a decreasing P/E ratio from 33 in 2022 to 18 in 2026, suggesting improving valuation attractiveness over time [3]. Batch Price Analysis - Moutai's batch prices have shown a pattern of increase from Qingming to Duanwu and then to Mid-Autumn, followed by a decline before the next Spring Festival, indicating seasonal demand fluctuations [18]. - The report notes that the elasticity of demand for Moutai has been decreasing, with the price range for whole boxes showing minimal fluctuation over the past years [18]. Market Position - Moutai's current market price is 1,662.22 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 20,880.81 million yuan [12][11]. - The report highlights that Moutai's batch price fluctuations do not significantly impact its financial statements, enhancing its investment appeal [2].