Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a strong model cycle in H2 2024, with significant cost improvements anticipated [1] - Q4 2023 saw record sales, with over 60,000 units delivered, representing a year-on-year increase of 171% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50% [1] - The company aims to deliver between 21,000 to 22,500 vehicles in Q1 2024, with projected revenue of 5.8 to 6.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.8% to 53.7% [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q4 2023 sales reached 60,000 units, with revenue increasing to 13.05 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 154% [1] - The company plans to launch over 10 new models in the next three years, with a strong product pipeline expected to drive sales growth [1] Profitability - The gross margin improved significantly in Q4 2023, recovering to 6.2%, with automotive gross margin turning positive at 4.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net loss for Q4 2023 was 1.77 billion RMB, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of -13.6%, showing a 19 percentage point improvement from Q3 [1] Cost Management - The company is collaborating with Volkswagen for joint procurement, aiming to reduce new vehicle BOM costs by 25% and XNGP hardware costs by 50% [1] - R&D expenses are projected to be between 7 billion to 7.5 billion RMB in 2024, with expectations of a significant reduction in SG&A expense ratio [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total sales of approximately 170,000, 260,000, and 360,000 units for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with total revenues reaching 50.1 billion, 81.7 billion, and 104.7 billion RMB [1] - Non-GAAP net profit margins are expected to improve from -12% in 2024 to 1% by 2026 [1] Valuation - The target valuation for the company is set at 10.4 billion USD, corresponding to a 1.5x P/S ratio for 2024, with a target price of 43.1 HKD per share [1]
H2望迎车型周期，成本望大幅改善