XINJI ENERGY(SH:601918) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2023 reached 12.845 billion yuan, an increase of 7.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.109 billion yuan, up by 1.57%, slightly below market expectations. In Q4, revenue was 3.153 billion yuan, a growth of 1.87%, but net profit dropped by 19.95% to 189 million yuan [2][3]. - The report highlights that the increase in costs and expenses in Q4 impacted performance. However, it is anticipated that the company's coal-electricity integration will enhance profitability and risk resistance in the future [2]. - The target price has been raised to 10.01 yuan, reflecting an increase of 3.94 yuan based on a comparable company average PE of 11x for 2024 [2][4]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company produced 19.3691 million tons of commercial coal, a rise of 5.16%, and sold 19.6861 million tons, an increase of 8.70%. The coal segment generated revenue of 8.788 billion yuan, up by 12.39%. The average selling price of coal remained stable at 551 yuan/ton, while the cost per ton increased by 15 yuan to 351 yuan/ton, resulting in a gross profit of 200 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The company's electricity generation in 2023 was 10.479 billion kWh, down by 2.58%, with grid-connected electricity at 9.895 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.77%. The average grid-connected electricity price was 0.4098 yuan/kWh, up by 0.39%. The electricity segment's revenue was 4.056 billion yuan, down by 3.03% [2][3]. - The report projects EPS for 2024 at 0.91 yuan, 0.99 yuan for 2025, and 1.07 yuan for 2026, with a downward adjustment for 2024-2025 EPS forecasts due to increased safety cost provisions [2][3]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The operating profit margin for 2023 was 29.8%, with a return on equity of 15.6% and a return on invested capital of 9.3%. The company’s PE ratio for 2023 was 9.81, with a projected PE of 8.74 for 2024 [3][4]. - The report indicates a dividend yield of 1.4% for 2023, expected to rise to 1.7% in 2024 and 2.0% by 2026 [3][4].