受产能爬坡及去库影响，2023年业绩承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.76 CNY per share, based on an 18x PE multiple for 2024 [25][26] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company's performance recovery in 2024, driven by the gradual release of overseas subsidiary capacity and the normalization of downstream orders as overseas brand inventories near the end [2] - The company is expected to continue leading the demand for inflatable mattresses in the automotive camping sector, increase market share in waterproof and insulated bags, and expand into the home bed and water sports markets [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 823 million CNY, a decrease of 12.95% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 131 million CNY, a decline of 38.64% YoY [24] - The revenue decline was primarily due to reduced orders, delayed shipments, and slower new product development as a result of inventory adjustments in the downstream market [24] - The company's gross margin, net margin, and non-GAAP net margin in 2023 were 33.84%, 15.57%, and 16.63%, respectively, down by 2.77, 6.51, and 5.00 percentage points YoY [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to 971 million CNY in 2024, 1,124 million CNY in 2025, and 1,284 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 18.0%, 15.7%, and 14.2%, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase to 171 million CNY in 2024, 211 million CNY in 2025, and 243 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 31.0%, 23.5%, and 15.1%, respectively [3] - EPS is forecasted to be 1.21 CNY in 2024, 1.49 CNY in 2025, and 1.72 CNY in 2026 [3] Product Performance - In 2023, the company's inflatable mattress, bags, pillow cushions, and other products generated revenues of 515 million CNY, 156 million CNY, 60 million CNY, and 90 million CNY, respectively, with YoY changes of -25.19%, 22.53%, -19.29%, and 64.35% [24] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 23.01x in 2023 to 15.68x in 2024, 12.70x in 2025, and 11.03x in 2026 [3] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 14.44x in 2023 to 8.68x in 2024, 7.17x in 2025, and 5.68x in 2026 [3] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies such as Huali Group and Mogudiao have 2024E PE ratios of 18.63x and 13.26x, respectively, while the company's 2024E PE ratio is 15.68x [10]