2023年报点评：一体化产业链增厚成本护城河，未来成长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][17]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's integrated industrial chain enhances its cost moat, indicating promising future growth potential. The target price is set at 8.22 CNY, representing a 19% upside from the current price [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, Tianshan Aluminum achieved total revenue of 28.975 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.205 billion CNY, down 16.8% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.883 billion CNY, a decline of 25.81%. However, the net cash flow from operating activities increased by 24.05% to 3.916 billion CNY [2][3]. - The production volumes of key products showed stable growth, with electrolytic aluminum production at 1.165 million tons (up 0.64% year-on-year), alumina at 2.119 million tons (up 37.6%), and anode carbon at 599,000 tons (up 16.9%). However, the average selling prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum ingots fell by 5.1% and 5%, respectively, impacting overall revenue [2][3]. Product Performance Summary - The profitability of alumina improved significantly, with sales volume increasing by 60.32% and average selling prices rising by 3%, leading to a revenue increase of 65.21%. The gross margin for alumina reached 2.86%, up 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - High-purity aluminum sales volume decreased by 58%, with gross profit dropping by 66.93%, primarily due to export tariff adjustments and a weak domestic consumer electronics market. However, the resolution of export tariff issues and entry into the aerospace supply chain are expected to improve performance in 2024 [2]. Strategic Developments Summary - Tianshan Aluminum has strengthened its upstream bauxite resource security by acquiring a local mining company in Guinea, which is projected to produce 5-6 million tons of bauxite annually starting in 2024. This will significantly reduce raw material costs [2]. - The company is advancing its integrated industrial chain with ongoing projects in battery aluminum foil production, with planned capacities of 300,000 tons, including various new production lines set to gradually commence operations in 2024 [2]. Financial Forecast Summary - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 3.19 billion CNY, 4.13 billion CNY, and 4.93 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44.6%, 29.4%, and 19.5% [2][3].