Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 4.90 HKD, based on a valuation of 405 billion RMB using the FCFF method [2][4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth driven by strong performance in its flagship product, with a focus on domestic market share expansion as foreign brands lose ground [1][2]. - The decline in birth rates is slowing, which may benefit the demand for infant formula, especially with potential increases in birth rates in 2024 [1]. - The company is actively managing channel inventory and has successfully conducted numerous marketing events to attract new customers, indicating effective marketing strategies [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023-2025 are adjusted to 21,891 million RMB, 23,551 million RMB, and 24,957 million RMB respectively, with a slight increase in earnings per share forecasted at 0.50, 0.54, and 0.57 RMB [2][3][15]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 66.8% for the forecast period, while net profit margins are projected to be around 20.7% to 20.8% [3][15]. - The company's market share in the infant formula segment has increased from 11.9% in 2019 to nearly 20% in the first half of 2022, reflecting a successful strategy of capturing market share from foreign brands [1][2].
单品强势+国产替代，看好公司发展稳中向好