HLGF(SH:600346) Soochow Securities·2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 234.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.9 billion yuan, up 198% year-on-year [2] - The downstream product structure is recovering, with overall profitability in refining and chemical fibers improving. The refining segment achieved a net profit of 4.66 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 2.82 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Strong operating cash flow was noted, with 23.5 billion yuan in 2023, and a dividend payout ratio exceeding expectations, reaching 56% [2] - The company is transitioning from high capital expenditure to high dividends as ongoing projects are completed [2] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with net profits projected at 8.7 billion yuan for 2024, 10.6 billion yuan for 2025, and 12.4 billion yuan for 2026 [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 234.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.62% for 2024 and 23.43% for 2025 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 6.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.7 billion yuan in 2024, 10.6 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.4 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 197.83%, 25.83%, and 22.36% respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.98 yuan in 2023 to 1.76 yuan in 2026 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 14.75 in 2023 to 8.24 in 2026, indicating improved valuation [5]