Stock Data and Market Performance - The stock closed at HKD 21.10 on April 9, with a 52-week price range of HKD 13.12-21.40 [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 47.9 billion, with 2.27 billion shares outstanding [1] - Over the past 3 months, the stock has shown an absolute return of 40.11% and a relative return of 36.17% compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Company Overview and Competitive Advantages - The company is a leading OTA platform in China, formed through the merger of Tongcheng Network and eLong in 2018 [3] - It has strong partnerships with Tencent and Ctrip, with 80% of MAU coming from WeChat mini-programs [4] - The company has a dominant position in lower-tier cities, with 86.9% of registered users from non-first-tier cities as of 2023 [3] Financial Performance and Growth - Revenue in 2023 reached RMB 11.896 billion, an 80.7% YoY increase, surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 60.9% [2] - Net profit turned positive at RMB 1.554 billion in 2023, compared to a loss of RMB 146 million in 2022 [5] - The company expects revenue to grow to RMB 23.931 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 19.1% from 2023-2026 [5] Business Segments and Expansion - The platform offers over 420,000 flight routes, 2.5 million hotels, 430,000 bus routes, and 10,000 attraction tickets [4] - Domestic hotel room nights sold in Q4 2023 exceeded 70% of 2019 levels, while international room nights fully recovered [4] - The company completed acquisitions of Tongcheng Tourism Group and Yalong Bay Tropical Paradise in 2023 to expand its tourism business [4] Valuation and Investment Rating - The stock is trading at 19.25x 2023 P/E and 1.69x P/B, with an EV/EBITDA of 14.88x [9] - Analysts forecast 2024-2026 adjusted net profits of RMB 2.73 billion, RMB 3.065 billion, and RMB 3.655 billion respectively [6] - The target price range is HKD 23.38-29.88, representing 18-23x 2024 P/E, with an "Outperform" rating [6] Industry Trends and Growth Drivers - The company benefits from China's tourism market recovery, with strong demand for domestic and outbound travel [6] - It has launched a "Global Destination Plan" to capture growth in cross-border travel [6] - The company's focus on lower-tier cities and WeChat ecosystem integration provides a competitive edge [3][4]
OTA行业龙头，多元场景加深下沉优势