JUNEYAOAIR(SH:603885) Guohai Securities·2024-04-09 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in 2023, with significant growth in capacity driving profit recovery [3][4] - The airline industry is experiencing a sustained recovery in travel demand, with the company leading in business volume restoration [4][6] - The company plans to expand its fleet by introducing 12 new aircraft in 2024, which is expected to enhance profitability [6][7] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company transported 24.6391 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 141.31%, and a 11.91% increase compared to 2019 [3][4] - The company's operating revenue reached 20.096 billion yuan, up 144.76% year-on-year, and a 19.98% increase compared to 2019 [3][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.751 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 4.148 billion yuan in the previous year [3][5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.35% in 2023, an increase of 0.33 percentage points compared to 2019 [5][6] Operational Metrics - The company’s RASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer) reached 0.41 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.89% and a 2.8% increase compared to 2019 [4][6] - The passenger load factor was 82.81%, up 15.50 percentage points year-on-year, but down 2.42 percentage points compared to 2019 [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 24.176 billion yuan, 26.750 billion yuan, and 29.662 billion yuan, respectively [7][8] - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.188 billion yuan, 2.945 billion yuan, and 3.556 billion yuan, respectively [7][8] - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 12 times in 2024, decreasing to 8 times by 2026 [7][8]