积累库存拖累盈利，印尼几内亚资源项目稳步推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.75 CNY per share [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.975 billion CNY in 2023, a decrease of 12.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.205 billion CNY, down 16.8% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 6.631 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% [1][7]. - The company is experiencing inventory accumulation in its anode carbon and high-purity aluminum segments, which has led to unrealized sales profits. However, rising aluminum prices are expected to enhance profitability [1][6]. - The company has set ambitious production targets for 2024, including 1.16 million tons of primary aluminum and 2.35 million tons of alumina [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company produced 1.165 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, 2.119 million tons of alumina, and 0.599 million tons of prebaked anodes, with a slight increase in production compared to the previous year [1][6]. - The average closing price of aluminum on the SHFE in 2023 was 18,624.9 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [1][2]. - The company’s operating cash flow was robust, with a net operating cash flow of 3.916 billion CNY in 2023, an increase of 759 million CNY from 2022 [6][8]. Production and Strategic Initiatives - Tianshan Aluminum is advancing its integrated projects in Indonesia and Guinea, aiming to secure resource supply and reduce procurement costs. The Indonesian project includes a planned investment of 1.556 billion USD for a 2 million ton alumina production line [6][7]. - The company has completed a local mining company acquisition in Guinea, securing exclusive purchasing rights for mineral products, with plans for large-scale mining in 2024 [6][7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 36.580 billion CNY, 37.563 billion CNY, and 38.205 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 2.690 billion CNY, 3.067 billion CNY, and 3.194 billion CNY [7][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.58 CNY, 0.66 CNY, and 0.69 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][8].