HUALAN BIOLOGICAL(002007) 华兴证券·2024-04-10 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 27.77, indicating a potential upside of 46% from the current price of RMB 18.96 [1][2][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 13% and 17% respectively from 2023 to 2026, driven by an increase in plasma collection and blood product sales [4]. - The vaccine business has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 32% year-on-year in 2023, attributed to higher public demand for flu vaccines [5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 30% over the next three years, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 53.41 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit of RMB 14.82 billion, up 38% from the previous year [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.93, with subsequent years showing a gradual increase to RMB 1.29 by 2026 [6][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 39.3% in 2023, up from 31.5% in 2022, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Blood products generated revenue of RMB 29.26 billion in 2023, with a gross margin of 54.34% [4][9]. - The vaccine segment achieved revenue of RMB 24.05 billion, with a notable increase in the number of flu vaccine batches released [5][9]. - The company has expanded its plasma collection capabilities, with 32 plasma collection stations operational by the end of 2023, contributing to a 20% increase in plasma collection volume [4][5]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to RMB 6.05 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [13]. - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is now RMB 4.05 billion, up 5% from earlier projections [14]. - The report includes a new forecast for 2026, with expected revenue of RMB 7.67 billion [13][14].