盈利逐季回升，龙头优势彰显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 15.41 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 39.54 billion CNY in 2023, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.9% to 3.09 billion CNY [2]. - The profitability showed a significant improvement in Q4 2023, with a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.5% [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 15.9%, up by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 17.1%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 39.54 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.09 billion CNY, and a non-recurring net profit of 3.03 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year increases of 9.9% and 9.2% respectively [2]. - The Q4 performance showed a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY, with a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, marking a 75.5% increase year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The gross margin for various products in 2023 included: non-coated cultural paper at 16.6% (+0.1pp), coated paper at 12.9% (-2.3pp), and corrugated boxboard at 14.7% (+4.5pp) [2]. - The company sold 6.66 million tons of paper products in 2023, a 19.6% increase, while pulp sales volume decreased by 20.7% to 1.46 million tons [3]. Market Trends - Price stability for cultural paper was noted, with prices remaining around 6,000 CNY/ton in late 2023, and a slight increase to 5,900 CNY/ton in early 2024 due to seasonal demand [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from price increases in the cultural paper segment, supported by cost stability and improved demand [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its integrated production capacity, achieving stable operations in its new production lines, with total capacity exceeding 12 million tons by the end of 2023 [7]. - New projects, including a 300,000-ton life paper production line, are set to begin trial production in Q3 2024 [7]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.34 CNY, 1.48 CNY, and 1.60 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12x, 10x, and 10x [7].