TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-10 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][35]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2023 due to falling aluminum prices, but the fourth quarter showed significant improvement in net profit year-on-year [2][9][22]. - Tianshan Aluminum has a strong cost advantage in electrolytic aluminum production, supported by its integrated operations and strategic acquisitions in bauxite resources [2][30][33]. - Future growth is expected as the company expands its production capacity and benefits from lower energy costs [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Event: Company Releases 2023 Annual Report - In 2023, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 28.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.205 billion yuan, down 16.80% [2][9]. 2. 2023 Annual Performance: Aluminum Price Decline, Profit Drop - The company's self-produced aluminum ingot output was 1.1655 million tons, up 0.64% year-on-year, while sales decreased by 3.40% [2][14]. - The average price of self-produced aluminum ingots fell to 16,545.42 yuan per ton, a decrease of 890.63 yuan per ton year-on-year [2][16]. 3. 2023Q4 Performance: Significant Year-on-Year Improvement - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 568 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.70% [2][22]. - The improvement was driven by higher aluminum prices and lower raw material costs [2][22]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost Advantage and Upstream Bauxite Layout - The company has completed its integrated layout, achieving self-sufficiency in prebaked anodes and alumina, with a power self-sufficiency rate of 80%-90% [2][30]. - Tianshan Aluminum is expanding its bauxite resources through acquisitions in Indonesia and Guinea, enhancing its resource supply security [2][33]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.069 billion yuan, 3.433 billion yuan, and 3.766 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 9 [2][35].