年报点评：业绩稳健，势能延续

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [13] Core Views - The company achieved robust performance in 2023, with revenue reaching 1505.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 747.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.16% [11] - The company's direct sales ratio increased significantly, with i-Moutai contributing 223.74 billion yuan in sales, a year-on-year increase of 88.29% [12] - The company's 2024 target growth rate is set at 15%, consistent with the 2023 target, indicating a positive outlook [12] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Revenue for 2022 was 1275.54 billion yuan, increasing to 1505.60 billion yuan in 2023, with projected growth to 2295.12 billion yuan by 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 627.16 billion yuan in 2022, increasing to 747.34 billion yuan in 2023, with projections reaching 1157.80 billion yuan by 2026 [3] - The company's revenue growth rate is expected to remain strong, with a projected 14.08% growth in 2026 [3] Profitability Metrics - The company's ROE (Return on Equity) was 31.75% in 2022, increasing to 34.65% in 2023, with projections of 25.90% by 2026 [3] - EPS (Earnings Per Share) was 49.93 yuan in 2022, increasing to 59.49 yuan in 2023, with projections reaching 92.17 yuan by 2026 [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio was 33.29 in 2022, decreasing to 27.94 in 2023, with projections of 18.03 by 2026 [3] - The PB ratio was 10.57 in 2022, decreasing to 9.68 in 2023, with projections of 4.67 by 2026 [3] Business Highlights Product Performance - Moutai liquor achieved revenue of 1265.89 billion yuan in 2023, with a sales volume of 42,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.10% [12] - The company's series liquor, led by Moutai 1935, achieved revenue of 206.30 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 29.43% [12] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 672.33 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 36.16%, accounting for 45.67% of total revenue [12] - i-Moutai contributed 33.28% of direct sales revenue, a significant increase from the previous year [12] Operational Efficiency - The company's sales expense ratio increased slightly to 3.09% in 2023, while the management expense ratio decreased to 6.46% [12] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 0.09 percentage points, and the net profit margin increased by 0.24 percentage points [12] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue to reach 1746.89 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected at 874.61 billion yuan [12] - The company's 2024 target growth rate is set at 15%, consistent with the 2023 target, indicating a positive outlook [12] Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is 20,701.89 billion yuan, with a closing price of 1,647.98 yuan as of April 10, 2024 [22] - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with a one-year high of 1,935.00 yuan [22]