2023年业绩点评：海外业务拖累业绩，期待新一轮改革红利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to reduce losses from overseas operations while benefiting from a new round of domestic reforms. The focus is on organizational changes in China, enhancing the brand matrix, and optimizing development strategies. The company aims to strengthen its "three platforms" (global hotel internet, global procurement, global finance) for better operational efficiency. The overseas business will undergo pragmatic integration to alleviate performance pressure. Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.698 billion, 1.825 billion, and 1.952 billion yuan, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times, respectively [6][8]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 14.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.002 billion yuan, up 691.14% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 774 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [6][7]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 535 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 53.41% [6]. - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue between 15.4 billion and 16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% to 9%, with domestic revenue expected to grow by 6% to 10% and overseas revenue by 1% to 5% [6][7]. Operational Insights - Domestic hotel business revenue saw significant growth due to demand recovery, while overseas operations continued to incur losses. In 2023, domestic limited-service hotel revenue reached 9.945 billion yuan, up 33.68% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.165 billion yuan. Conversely, overseas limited-service operations generated revenue of 566 million euros, a 14.86% increase, but incurred a net loss of 53.5 million euros, worsening by 27.18 million euros compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The company opened 1,407 new hotels in 2023, with a net increase of 888 hotels. For 2024, the plan includes opening 1,200 new hotels and signing 2,500 new contracts, maintaining a steady pace of expansion [7][8]. Profitability and Efficiency - The overall gross margin improved to 41.99%, an increase of 8.72 percentage points year-on-year. The management expense ratio was optimized, benefiting from the scale effect of revenue growth [7][8].