NORINCO International(SZ:000065) GF SECURITIES·2024-04-11 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [7][38]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.49 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 60.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 918 million yuan, up 44.3% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue reached 6.86 billion yuan, reflecting a 61.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 228 million yuan, a growth of 65.6% [37]. - The performance of the goods trade and international engineering sectors was particularly strong, with goods trade revenue at 10.78 billion yuan, up 53.4%, and international engineering revenue at 7.63 billion yuan, up 200.2% [37]. - The report highlights the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on financial expenses, with a financial expense ratio of -0.82%, an increase of 1.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced exchange gains [37]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.44 billion yuan, and 1.72 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, maintaining a reasonable value estimate of 14.32 yuan per share [37]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 13,433; 2023A: 21,488; 2024E: 26,487; 2025E: 32,087; 2026E: 37,331 [13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan): 2022A: 636; 2023A: 918; 2024E: 1,153; 2025E: 1,443; 2026E: 1,718 [13]. - EBITDA (in million yuan): 2022A: 1,403; 2023A: 1,619; 2024E: 2,231; 2025E: 2,675; 2026E: 3,107 [13]. - EPS (in yuan): 2022A: 0.64; 2023A: 0.92; 2024E: 1.15; 2025E: 1.44; 2026E: 1.71 [13]. - P/E Ratio: 2022A: 12.99; 2023A: 12.25; 2024E: 9.45; 2025E: 7.56; 2026E: 6.35 [13].