变现正确的先进封装技术路径指日可待；首次覆盖给予“买入”评级

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on ASMPT with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$150.00, representing a potential upside of 50$100.00 [1][8]. Core Insights - ASMPT is positioned as a leader in the thermocompression bonding (TCB) market, with the largest installed base globally and a strong technological advantage, making it the preferred solution for chip-to-substrate (C2S) and chip-to-wafer (C2W) bonding in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) applications [4][10]. - The advanced packaging segment has seen significant growth, contributing 22% of ASMPT's total sales in 2023, and is expected to drive valuation re-rating as the company shifts focus towards higher-margin, faster-growing advanced packaging solutions [6][8]. - The report highlights the importance of electrochemical deposition (ECD) equipment, which is increasingly recognized as a critical tool in advanced packaging, with potential for significant profit growth due to its high margins and strategic positioning in the market [5][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - ASMPT is recognized as a key enabler in the TCB market, with its Firebird series being the leading technology for advanced packaging applications [4][9]. - The company has a strong customer base primarily consisting of foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), which supports its growth in advanced packaging [17]. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% for ASMPT's sales from 2023 to 2026, driven by increasing orders in semiconductor solutions [2][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, supported by high R&D investments and operational leverage [2][6]. Valuation - The target price of HK$150.00 is based on a 25x P/E ratio for 2025, which is above the historical average since 2020 when advanced packaging began contributing significantly to revenue [8][6]. - The report suggests that ASMPT's current stock price is undervalued compared to its global peers, considering its strategic shift towards higher-value advanced packaging [8][6].