业绩预告高增，利润弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.97 CNY per share compared to the current price of 15.45 CNY [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by the Spring Festival peak season and contributions from new products, with monthly sales of quail eggs projected to reach 44 million CNY in Q3 2023, aiming for a "billion-level" single product [2]. - The anticipated net profit for Q1 2024 is projected to be between 71 to 78 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 80.0% to 100.0% [47]. - The profit growth is attributed to revenue increases from scale effects, supply chain optimization, and a decrease in the prices of key raw materials [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024E: 2,659 million CNY (growth rate: 28.8%) - 2025E: 3,289 million CNY (growth rate: 23.7%) - 2026E: 3,946 million CNY (growth rate: 20.0%) [8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is: - 2024E: 306 million CNY (growth rate: 46.1%) - 2025E: 397 million CNY (growth rate: 29.7%) - 2026E: 483 million CNY (growth rate: 21.6%) [8]. - The report indicates an improvement in profit margins, with the gross margin expected to reach 29.8% in 2024 and net margin at 11.6% [31]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 25 for 2024, with a corresponding fair value of 16.97 CNY per share [3][4]. - The projected EPS for 2024 is 0.68 CNY, with a decreasing PE ratio forecasted from 25.61 in 2023 to 14.42 by 2026 [31]. Market Position - The company is leveraging its traditional distribution channels while expanding into modern supermarkets and snack chains, enhancing its market presence [2]. - The strategic focus on both small and large packaging formats is expected to solidify its competitive advantage in the market [2].