Montage Technology(688008) 东方财富证券·2024-04-11 16:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] Core Views - The company's performance improved quarter by quarter in 2023, driven by the recovery of the memory cycle and the scale shipment of new AI products [1][2] - Revenue in 2023 was RMB 2.286 billion, down 37.76% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 451 million, down 65.30% YoY [2] - Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 761 million, down 3.90% YoY but up 27.28% QoQ, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 217 million, down 27.72% YoY but up 42.96% QoQ [2] - Q1 2024 revenue is expected to be RMB 737 million, up 75.74% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 210-240 million, up 9.65-11.17x YoY [2] Product Breakdown Interconnect Chips - Revenue in 2023 was RMB 2.185 billion, down 20.11% YoY, with a gross margin of 61.36%, up 2.64 pcts YoY [2] - Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 695 million, up 68.28% YoY, driven by the recovery in demand for memory interface chips [2] Jintide® Servers - Revenue in 2023 was RMB 94 million, down 90.01% YoY, with a gross margin of 4.01%, down 6.52 pcts YoY [2] - Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 39 million, up 680.00% YoY, as downstream manufacturers restarted procurement of general-purpose servers [2] Industry Leadership in Memory Interface Chips - The company is one of the three leading global suppliers of DDR5 memory interface chips [2] - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has increased the value of memory interface chips, with DDR5 penetration rising significantly due to the launch of mainstream server CPU platforms supporting DDR5 [2] - The company has rapidly iterated its DDR5 products, with the second-generation RCD chip shipping in Q3 2023, the third-generation in trial production in October 2023, and the fourth-generation launched in January 2024 [2] AI and New Products - The company is strategically focusing on high-performance "computing power" chips, with several new products achieving or nearing scale shipment [2] - PCIe Retimer chips successfully adopted in AI servers, with Q1 2024 shipments of approximately 150,000 units, 1.5x the total shipments in 2023 [2] - MRCD/MDB chips began trial shipments, with Q1 2024 sales exceeding RMB 20 million [2] - CKD chips completed mass production version development [2] - MXC chips adopted as core controllers in Samsung's 128GB CXL DRAM [2] - Fifth-generation Jintide® CPU released, featuring an AI acceleration engine that improves performance by 2x to 6x for various AI applications [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at RMB 3.793 billion, RMB 4.837 billion, and RMB 6.170 billion, respectively [5][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at RMB 1.314 billion, RMB 1.784 billion, and RMB 2.431 billion, respectively [5][6] - EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at RMB 1.15, RMB 1.56, and RMB 2.13, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37x, 28x, and 20x [5][6] Valuation Metrics - Total market capitalization: RMB 54.722 billion [3] - 52-week high/low stock price: RMB 78.52/RMB 42.20 [3] - 52-week high/low P/E: 138.85x/53.70x [3] - 52-week high/low P/B: 8.76x/4.83x [3] - 52-week stock price change: -33.62% [3]