全产业链布局加强，成本优势凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [5] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 28.97 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.22%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.80% to 2.21 billion yuan [5] - The company has strengthened its full industry chain layout, showcasing cost advantages, particularly in the production of aluminum ingots and aluminum foil [5][6] - The average aluminum price in China for 2023 was 18,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.2% despite a recovery trend [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 694 million yuan for 2023, with a payout ratio of 31.5% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.90%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.1% [5] - The gross margin for self-produced aluminum ingots was 20.78%, down 2.16 percentage points year-on-year due to falling aluminum prices and rising raw material costs [5] - The production volume of self-produced aluminum ingots reached 1.1655 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.64%, with a capacity utilization rate of 97.1% [5] Production and Capacity Expansion - The aluminum foil production line has a planned capacity of 300,000 tons, with the first phase of 150,000 tons nearing full-scale production [6] - The company has secured exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite from a local mining company in Guinea, with a production capacity of approximately 6 million tons per year [6] - Tianshan Aluminum is also planning to invest 1.556 billion USD in Indonesia to build a 2 million ton alumina production line [6] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Tianshan Aluminum for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.21 billion yuan, 3.55 billion yuan, and 3.70 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 45.6%, 10.6%, and 4.3% [5][19] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 10.07x, 9.10x, and 8.73x, respectively [5][19]