2023年年报点评：价值引领，龙头势稳

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 2286.53 CNY [2] - Current price is 1713.99 CNY, with a previous target price of 2286.53 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved its 2023 revenue target ahead of schedule, with total profit exceeding 100 billion CNY for the first time [2] - The company's performance in 2023 exceeded expectations, with operating income reaching 1505.60 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 19.16% [2] - The company's product, channel, and marketing strategies have shown strong results, with Moutai liquor revenue reaching 1265.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and series liquor revenue reaching 206.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 308.76 CNY per 10 shares, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of approximately 51.9% [2] Financial Performance - 2023 operating income: 1505.60 billion CNY, +18.04% YoY [2] - 2023 net profit attributable to the parent company: 74.734 billion CNY, +19.16% YoY [2] - 2023 EPS: 59.49 CNY, with 2024E EPS adjusted to 69.58 CNY (previously 69.80 CNY) and 2026E EPS projected at 94.51 CNY [2] - 2023 operating profit (EBIT): 101.810 billion CNY, +18% YoY [2] - 2023 net profit margin: 49.6%, with a slight increase expected in 2024E to 49.9% [2] Product and Channel Performance - Moutai liquor revenue in 2023: 1265.9 billion CNY, +17.4% YoY (volume +11%, price +6%) [2] - Series liquor revenue in 2023: 206.3 billion CNY, +29.4% YoY (volume +26%, price +26%) [2] - Direct sales revenue in 2023: 672.3 billion CNY, +36% YoY, accounting for 46% of total revenue (up from 22% in 2022) [2] - iMoutai platform contributed 223.7 billion CNY in revenue, with a growth rate of 88.3% [2] Production and Capacity - 2023 Moutai base liquor production: 5.72 million tons, +0.7% YoY [2] - 2023 series liquor base liquor production: 4.29 million tons, +22.6% YoY [2] - New series liquor production capacity is expected to be released in 2024 [2] Valuation and Profitability Metrics - 2023 P/E ratio: 28.81x, expected to decrease to 24.63x in 2024E and 18.14x in 2026E [2] - 2023 ROE: 34.7%, expected to slightly decrease to 33.9% in 2024E [2] - 2023 EV/EBITDA: 20.24x, expected to decrease to 16.52x in 2024E and 11.40x in 2026E [2] - 2023 dividend yield: 1.5%, expected to increase to 2.1% in 2024E and 2.8% in 2026E [2] Industry and Company Overview - The company is a leading enterprise in China's liquor industry, primarily producing and selling Moutai liquor, one of the world's three most famous liquors [4] - The company also engages in the production and sales of beverages, food, packaging materials, anti-counterfeiting technology development, and information technology-related products [4] - Moutai liquor is a representative of sauce-flavor liquor and is known as the "national liquor" of China [4]