继续聚焦煤炭主业，看好中长期投资价值

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co Ltd (600546 SH) for the first time, indicating a positive outlook on its medium to long-term investment value [1] Core Views - The company continues to focus on its core coal business, with its non-coal segments largely divested [3] - Coal price declines significantly impacted the company's performance in 2023, with key coal price indicators showing substantial year-over-year decreases [3] - The company maintains a strong dividend payout commitment, with a 2023 dividend yield of 4 20% based on the April 12 closing price [4] - The company's 2024-2026 shareholder return plan promises dividend payouts of no less than 60% of distributable profits [4] Financial Performance Summary - 2023 revenue reached 37 371 billion yuan, down 19 45% year-over-year [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4 260 billion yuan, a 38 53% decrease year-over-year [2] - Basic EPS stood at 2 15 yuan, down 38 57% year-over-year [2] - ROE decreased by 23 32 percentage points to 28 51% [2] - Operating cash flow declined 58 07% to 5 985 billion yuan [2] Operational Highlights - Self-produced coal output decreased 3 92% to 38 9837 million tons in 2023 [3] - Self-produced coal sales volume dropped 5 68% to 34 8599 million tons [3] - Trade coal sales increased 4 29% to 17 6454 million tons [3] - Average selling price for self-produced coal decreased 16 6% to 682 66 yuan/ton [3] - Gross margin for self-produced coal declined 7 76 percentage points to 58 85% [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to reduce coal production in 2024 compared to 2023 levels [5] - EPS projections for 2024-2026 are 2 11, 2 19, and 2 32 yuan respectively [5] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios are estimated at 7 3x, 7 1x, and 6 7x respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain relatively high profitability despite seasonal coal price fluctuations [5] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 revenue projections are 33 289 billion, 34 513 billion, and 35 746 billion yuan respectively [6] - Net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 4 179 billion, 4 334 billion, and 4 600 billion yuan [6] - Gross margin is expected to gradually recover to 40 7% by 2026 [6] - ROE is projected to decline to 18 9% by 2026 [6]