高销量基数或令1H24短期承压，但全年前景保持不变

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$18.90, indicating a potential upside of 73% from the current price of HK$10.94 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high sales base from 1Q23 in the China and Korea markets may pressure Budweiser APAC's sales performance in 1H24, but the overall outlook for the year remains unchanged [4][5]. - Management expects a high single-digit growth in average selling prices in 1Q24, which will drive further gross margin expansion and maintain normalized EBITDA margin year-on-year [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that despite potential short-term challenges, the company's product upgrade strategy remains intact, and net profit is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2024 [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at US$7,116 million, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while 2025E revenue is projected at US$7,631 million, reflecting a 7.2% increase [6][8]. - The expected EPS for 2024E is US$0.08, with a growth forecast to US$0.09 in 2025E and US$0.10 in 2026E [1][6]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including a projected EBITDA of US$1,525 million for 2024E, increasing to US$1,758 million in 2025E [6][7]. Market Performance - The report notes that Budweiser APAC's stock has a current market capitalization of US$18,502 million, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$28 million [2][4]. - The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 30.1 times for 2024, which is lower than the historical average P/E over the past three years [5][6]. Sales Performance - The report anticipates a 3% year-on-year decline in sales volume for 1Q24, primarily due to the high sales base from 1Q23, with specific declines of 4.4% in Eastern Asia and 2.9% in Western Asia [4][5]. - The average selling price is expected to increase by 6.2% in 1Q24, contributing to a gross margin expansion of 0.9 percentage points [5][6].